1, India and Pakistan have turned into countries with nuclear capability, both countries are now devoted to researching and developing nuclear weapon delivery vehicles, especially long-range missiles.

India started its nuclear program in the fifties of last century, and now has possessed a fairly strong strength and the capability of producing nuclear weapons after 50 years’ research and development. Taking the nuclear test of 1998 as a turning point, India abandoned the nuclear threshold policy of discreetly developing nuclear strength, and accelerated the speed of nuclear armament. In recent years, India has been putting stress on the development of nuclear warheads (including hydrogen bomb) of various equivalent and applicable to different delivery vehicles and striking targets. It is also striving to increase the productivity of nuclear fuels.

India has possessed in the main the capacity of nuclear warheads delivery. It is equipped with modified airplanes capable of carrying nuclear warheads. India started to develop ballistic nuclear missiles in 1980s, and has gained the capacity of delivering short and medium range ballistic missiles, and is now developing-- in cooperation with Russia-- sea-based nuclear forces provided with stealth and capacity of carrying nuclear warheads.

Nuclear Command Authority has been set up and the missile unit is to be formed in India. The “ Draft Nuclear Doctrine”, published in 1999, lays stress on carrying out nuclear research and development program without any restriction, establishing the minimum nuclear deterrent, putting the dependable strategy of minimum nuclear deterrence into practice, building a moderate sized strategic nuclear force which is triad composed of land, sea and air based war heads and capable of launching the second strike. According to the 2001—2015 armament budget drawn by the defense ministry of India, US$20billion (about 21% of the total budget out of US$95 billion) will be allocated in nuclear armament, among which US$15billion for developing nuclear weapons, US$5billion for setting up command and control system. India is persisting in the principle of “building up sufficient nuclear strength”, keeping the development scale flexible, laying stress on sufficient quantity, reliable and trustworthy striking devices and capability of withstanding nuclear strike and viability. The post of chief of staff of defense has been newly set up for commanding and controlling nuclear force. In April, 2001, India published detailed rules and regulations regarding the establishment of the command and control system of nuclear force. After the formal set up of the command system at the beginning of this year, India is now accelerating the pace of forming the nuclear missile unit, which is the main component part of India’s nuclear deterrent.
Irritated by India’s vigorous development plan of nuclear and missiles, Pakistan is increasing the allocations for the nuclear and missile program and accelerating the development speed. The nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan is escalating unceasingly. Pakistan started its nuclear program in 1950s. From 1986, Pakistan began to produce weapon-grade uranium, and conducted nuclear tests in May, 1998, therefore, crossed nuclear threshold. From 1980s on, Pakistan has been developing the techniques of ballistic missiles, producing and deploying short and intermediate range missiles, stepping up the development of missiles with 2500kms range, so as to offset the unsymmetrical military strength. Relying heavily on and guided by the theory of “missile zone”, Pakistan has changed its policy of “overall improvement and minimum deterrence” to “forward position defense and limited deterrence”.

2, India and Pakistan have fallen foul of each other over Kashmir issue in the past 50 years, numerous armed conflicts of various scales erupted continuously. From the end of 2001 to October 2002, there were more than one million troops of two countries confronting each other along the border areas. Since both India and Pakistan are countries with nuclear capabilities, there is the danger of escalation of the conventional war to the ever first nuclear war of the world. South Asia has become a hot pot of the world once again.

India is the major country in South Asia and overwhelmingly superior to Pakistan in respect of territorial areas, population, natural resources, total volume of economy and conventional military strength. It has been spending huge amount of money on armaments. From 1998 to 2001, India spent US$7.2billion on munitions importation, ranking second among those developing countries, stockpiling advanced weapons like supersonic fighters, main battle tanks etc. Its defense expenditure in 2002 increased by 50% than that in 1999. The main body of India’s armed forces is deployed to confront Pakistan. The large- scale arms expansion of India further increased the disparity in military strength between India and Pakistan and tip the unbalance of the military strength in South Asia. The imbalance of the conventional weapons and military strength between India and Pakistan is a dangerous omen, poses great challenge to regional security. It’s alleged that Pakistan planned to deter India’s war attempts by war escalation, to deter India’s “limited war” by all round war, and to deter India’s all round conventional war by nuclear war. The already tense relations between two countries were sharply deteriorated after the terrorist attack on India’s parliament on December 13, 2001. Both countries moved their missiles with nuclear warheads closer to the border areas. The two countries were almost on the verge of nuclear war. The tense relations between India and Pakistan have been eased to some extent recently, but the military situation in Kashmir still remains tense. It’s only time that can tell that never-ending conflict in Kashmir brings two countries to the brink of war again. Any provocation by either side may result in catastrophe. If the situation is out of control, or any unexpected grave incident happens, the possibility of nuclear conflict can’t be completely ruled out.

3, The development of nuclear arms by India and Pakistan, which regard each other as a rival, has shaken the preventive scheme of nuclear proliferation, upset the process of international nuclear arms control. It is worsening the security situation in South Asia, and posing a threat to peace and stability of this region and the whole world as well.

There are people both in India and Pakistan who have talked about the possibility of launching a short and limited nuclear attack and its advantages and disadvantages while the situation in border areas was highly tense with one million troops confronting each other. According to some experts’ analysis, should Indo-Pak conflict be escalated to a nuclear war and major cities of two countries were attacked by nuclear bombs, the immediate death toll could be as high as 3million. The impact of geo-politics and the radioactive dusts from nuclear attack will not be limited to South Asia only, the relations of big powers within the region as well as the relations of big powers out of the region will inevitably undergo significant readjustment.

Countries in South Asia and the whole international community are concerned about the escalation of Indo-Pak confrontation, and appealing to both countries to restrain themselves so to ease the tension and avoid loss of control of the situation. Both countries have acknowledged that the possibility of using nuclear weapons would highly increase if one party suffers heavy casualties in an all round conventional war. A nuclear war would cause mass destruction to both sides that neither of them can afford. Seeing that, leaders of both countries have promised in different ways in restraining the use of nuclear weapons. On August 15, 2002, President Musharraf indicated that Pakistan would never fire the first shot in South Asia and its’ nuclear weapons were purely for self-defense, Pakistan and India would not go to a nuclear war. He also asked Russia to mediate between India and Pakistan. Indian foreign minister declared that India adhered to the policy of not being the first to use nuclear weapons. On September 14, 2002, the Prime Minister of India appealed in the UN Assembly to the international community to take more measures for easing the tense situation in South Asia.

The pressing matter of the moment for international community is to urge two countries to ease the tension in border areas, work out a final solution for Kashmir dispute through dialogue and consultation and stop arms race especially nuclear arms race. The nuclear arms race in South Asia does not only create negative effects to the international efforts of preventing nuclear proliferation, but also increases instable factors to the situation in South Asia. The international society should take joint efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and oppose spread of WMD and its delivery vehicles, adhere to resolution 1172 of UN Security Council of refusing to recognize India and Pakistan as nuclear weapons states, so to maintain a relatively stable pattern of nuclear strategy. The universal acceding to and comprehensive observation of NPT should be ensured. Countries that haven’t joined the NPT should join it at an early date. The international community should give a strong push on the earlier operation of CTBT in accordance with the provisions concerned. The global strategic balance and stability should be maintained. The agent of developing and keeping nuclear weapons of some countries should be eliminated, so as to prevent a new round nuclear arms race from happening.

From the very beginning of this year, India and Pakistan started a new round race of missile tests that caused strong repercussions over the world. All South Asian countries are good neighbors of China. We are willing to see a tranquil and stable South Asia. We are much worried abut the arms race, especially the nuclear arms race in South Asia, and hope countries concerned in this region would restrain themselves to the utmost and stop developing nuclear weapons, abandon nuclear weapon programs, accede to CTBT and NPT, so as to contribute to peace, security and stability in South Asia.